When will the interest rate be lowered? PKO BP’s chief economist indicates a possible date

On Thursday, a conference organized by PKO BP for representatives of foreign banks took place in Warsaw.

During the conference, PKO BP’s chief economist, Piotr Bujak, said the data from the Polish economy looked “very strong”. – The latest data on economic growth in the first quarter of this year turned out to be better than expected. The economist said it shows that Poland has avoided even a technical recession. The Central Bureau of Statistics reported that in the first quarter of 2023, compared to the first quarter of 2022, it decreased by 0.2 percent, and compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, it increased by 3.9 percent. The economist at PKO BP noted that economic growth will soon begin to accelerate when it declines economic inflation Wages will start to rise again in real terms. – At the same time, exports and investments are doing well. We believe that investments will also grow in the coming quarters, added Piotr Bujak. He also mentioned that Poland’s current account has been improving recently and that Poland is expected to register a current account surplus by the end of this year. In his opinion, one could also expect a rapid decline in inflation, which results, among other things, from the fall in world food prices and from their decline fuel prices. In addition, inflation in Poland is affected by monetary policy. “We’ve had a very tight monetary policy,” said the economist. – We do not expect that it will be necessary to return to Poland The interest rate increasesHe added that we believe that at the end of the year in the fall there may be cuts.

During its meeting in May, the Monetary Policy Board decided to keep interest rates on NBP unchanged. This is the eighth consecutive meeting that the Monetary Policy Committee has not changed interest rates. The main reference interest rate has remained at 6.75% since September 8, 2022.

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